zzzzzz

Indices

Dow Jones
-VT not successful, now cci gone past -100
-Fish has been almost flat
-IFT still oversold
-rest of indicators still bearish
-if Month chart breaks below EMA, then potential dark clouds ahead.


Nasdaq
-ZLR to south
-CMF also shows red
-bar currently under EMA

Russell
-ZLR to south but chop zone signals are mixed
-Month chart shows current time closing resting on EMA.
-lower highs does not bode well.
-anyway, must monitor

cci

B
M:
W: ILMN,NFX
D: MON,XTO

S
M: BUCY,PBR
W:
D: GTE

July Watchlist

Scans

From MCtrl/Freey list:
GTE,DAR,HOS,DNR,SY,ANR,BRY,FMC,BUCY,DRS,FDG,CMP,ILMN,STLD,FLS,MON,CHK,AGU

New uptend: HOS,DNR

MAC: EOG

OX
OTM: XTO,URBN,MON,NFX,CHK,ACI,PBR
ATM: ANR,URBN,MON,NFX,CHK,AGU,ACI,PBR,

News

1. GS beats ! (but alas)
2. Core inflation slows even as producer price rise.
3. Housing starts - decline rate slowing which is good sign.

Positions

c
-turbo already pointing upwards
-but CMF is negative - distribution happening?
-need to monitor

m
-trying to go off Bollinger
-cci still above 100 - so not the time to exit first.
-MACD, CMF is tapering.
- watch.
-monsanto upside guidance might trigger it. anyway, got to watch.

Indices

Dow Jones
-cci shows VT but angle not so angle
-most indicators are turning North and ADX rise indicating higher volatility.

Nasdaq
-green LSMA appeared but cci today is not very good.
-indicators esp IFT istrying to go North
-overall good !

Russell
-indicators almost like Nasdaq and green LSMA appeared.
-may bounce

cci

B
M:
W: FCX,RIMM
D: AXP,CHK,DRYS,EAC,MA,MON

S
M: PBR,RIO
W: AAPL
D: CAT

July watch additions

Compare tonite:

CHK, AGU, XTO, ACI, PBR

Positions

mos
-still in overbought
-strong demand and CMF still going up
-don't exit yet.

clf
-if TT, then can hold, otherwise, may want to exit since CMF is dwindling down and indicators still bearish.
-see power of cci then.

Indices

Dow Jones
-Green LSMA appeared !
-indicators have that u-turn feeling !
-positive sign

Nasdaq
-Green LSMA not appeared yet.
-indicators currently flattening. IFT still oversold.

Rusell
-not fully done yet - most indicators still bearish including cci.
-monitor first.

Meditation

Pastor spoke on new revelations today: Grain, New Wine and Oil. Ask God why this cluster happens together. Grain and New Wine symbolises the communion we have with God. Oil was talking about anointing.

References: Deut 6, 8, Mark, Revelation 6.

Quite a fair bit of stuff in there. Await CD.

Plan for coming week

1. Stick to plan. Pre-market analysis, monitor half an hour and then go jog afterwards.
2. Review CWrite site.
3. Rewrite calculator to include adjustments but so far so good.
4. Dig past months trade and enter the adjustments into trade log.

Review of past week

1. Ran 13km. Started running on Thursday only. Try to be consistent. However, the 8km run on Thursday night was very good. But leg was strained afterwards. Anyway, when the going gets tough, the tough gets going.
2. Well, a bit "worried" past week because of drys. However, I realise must commit the battle to the Lord. So far, so good. These 3 months got to absorb all these lessons and understand how to do CC. Otherwise, when the money goes in, will worry over it.
3. The reason why we do CC is to avail time to read & meditate on God's word.

July preparations

1. Combined Top 20 & MC/OX ATM/OTM for July. Only those selected stocks are added to form July list.
2. Do the scanning at the end of the week. Preferably after Friday close and b4 Monday open.

cci scan:
B
M:
W: FCX, URBN
D: ANF,ANR,CLF,CNX,FCX,ISRG,MA,PBR,POT

S
M: PBR,RIO
W: AXP,CNX,MA
D:

June 13 watchlist

June 13 watchlist created.

Aim is to test stock criteria flow: MC>CCI>OX>SChart

Buy:
M:
W:
D: FDG,FLO,SY,TAP,TJX

SELL:
M:
W: HOS,IMO,INFA,MT,MUR,SU
D: BRY,CRZO,DVN,EAC,EAC,ECA,MEE,NBL,RDC,RRC

Consider:
CCI: ACI,AFL,ANR,CNX,EOG,IBM,PBR,STLD,WFT,

Indices

Dow Jones
-still waiting for green LSMA.
-Volatitily has increased via ADX

NQ
-indicators still bearish
-in fac, the -DMI going above +DMI may signal a downtrend.
-a sell-off in Tech stocks ?

Russell
-indicators still bearish but DMI does not show clear sign of downtrend.

cci

BUY
M:
W:
D: CAT,FDG,MA,MER,SHLD

SELL
M:
W: AXP, MA
D: CF,MOS

News

1. Oil dips early on US$132.25
2. Financials make strong showing, esp Bank of America
3. Anheuser-Busch receives unsolicited takeover bid from Belgian brewer
4. Retail sales surpass expectations

Indices

Dow Jones
-wait for green LSMA.
-oversold and most indicators bearish still.

NQ
-IFT went into oversold.
-indicators bearish

RUT
-almost like NQ but IFT have not breached oversold yet.

Analysis

d
-Most indicators bearish and position is oversold
-Resting on 61.8% currently.
-may need to exit 1st and then wait for green LSMA.

m
-Currently at top of Bollinger
-CCI at extremes and position currently overbought
-El OSC and MACD both have +ve bias
-overall very good chart.

c
-Red sea crossing. price now at bottom of bollinger and approaching EMA.
-IFT , El Osc and MACD all have bearish bias.

CCs 5A

Looking for stocks whose Ret "A">5>Premium@strike>3>Ret@ITM

OTM: FCX,ANR,DRYS,CLF,FSLR,LEH,SPWR,

Remember to read the news about Israel

That's what the Lord reminded me....

Plan for coming week

1. Go through Call Wr site tutorials (1 month)
2. Try to set up your own calculator (6 months project)
-use the spreadsheet to enter the transactions that happened so far.
- understand the P&L status of each
- impt is also next month's rollover proposals.
3. Try to work on Book outline.
4. Run 20km !

Review:
1. Finish 20km last week but realise that it's not just running. Need to control diet as well.
2. So far CCs are ok except DRYS but let's see the actual P&L.

Indices

DJ
-VT happened. see what happen to the bull spreads.

NQ
-Indicators going to overbought.

RUT
-Overbought.

Dollar-Smile Theory ?

Well, this is the first time I heard about this theory.

Anyway, there's a CNBC story out this morning saying with BOE holding rates, there might be a jump back into the dollar as the US economy may recover before the full effects of the credit crunch have been felt in Europe, analyst told CNBC.com

I am no FOREX trader but you can read the news for yourself here.

My hope is that this will help American exports and give it a much needed boost.

News

1. Costco and Walmart same store sales increase 9% & 3.9% respectively.
2. BOE leaves rate unchange to fight "inflation".

cci

BUY:
M:
W: CF,MOS,POT
D: CAT,SHLD

SELL:
M:
W: CLF,FCX,ISRG,MA
D: AEM,ISRG

Indices

DJ
-wait for VT

NQ
-Fish tapering down
-Rest of indicators in bearish mode.

Russell
-ZLR !

cci

BUY:
M:
W: CF,MOS,POT
D: CAT,SHLD

SELL:
M:
W: CLF,FCX,ISRG,MA
D: AEM,ISRG

Bernanke effect

A rare sight this year but let's hope prices goes down. Otherwise, world economy can suffer.

Bottom fishing ? or catching Falling Knives?

Nonetheless, markets move in cycles. I remember Robert Kiyosaki liked foreclosures. To me, it's almost like selling a OTM put and get a stock at a discount. But like the options strategy, risks are there.

Read CNBC's report on the rise of crowds attending Home-Buyer Education courses here.

Just don't buy money you cannot afford to loose.

Fighting inflation with a strong currency

Now that Bernanke has dealt with much of the liquidity issues in the market, eyes now turn to Inflation with an eye on the supply/demand of commodities and currencies.

See LA Times report here.

Sim Bull Spread

Tested on AAPL a synthetic covered call. Situation I intend to use this is when ZLR or RSI rises from oversold.

Use cc 30 200 5A ATM to screen stock. 2 strikes giving high premiums.

Stock price when bought 187.88
.apvfr@6.01 (190C)
.apvfs@-3.94 (195C)
.apvrq@-5.29 (185C)

Net credit is 3.22. BE for stock is 184.66. WWDC round the corner. iPhone 3G expected. Other surprises may be instored.

Also tried using CC 30 200 5A OTM. This time RIMM.

Stock price when bought 137.26
.rulfh@3.46 (140C)
.rulfi@-1.7 (145C)
.rulrw@-3.94 (135C)

Net credit is 2.18. BE for stock is 135.08. RIMM has new models and earnings at the end of month.

Another one is ANR. Stock @85.66
.anrfq@5.71 (85C)
.anrfr@-3.29 (90C)
.anrrq@-4.39 (85P)

Net credit is 1.97. BE for stock is 83.69. This seems to have higher ROI if assigned. However, this stock was bought at market price - try to avoid in future. China just raised coal price today so bull run expected.

Learn to see how to maintain and repair.

Be faithful. Sim trade first. Fear vs Greed ! Ultimately, have to trust.

Meditation

You are my God. Every moment that I live, Your Mighty Hands is doing wonders for me.

Selah.

So sings the New Creations.

Lord, I look towards putting my wife out of job in a year's time so that she can look after the girl and personally coach her. It's was so interesting bringing out for a swim today. I enjoy these times with her.

Hold your fire

Wait for the time. It's meant to test the strategy. When premiums =ed, then u may pull. Use this time to test the exit/maintenance strategies.

News - Fed-up on rate cuts

1. Read my headlines with Singlish accent !
2. Factory Orders surprisingly strong (+1.1% vs -0.1%). But will strengthening dollar spur front loading than delayed purchase?

News

1. Lehmen brothers to raise US$3-4 billion. Needs to deleverage. Markets guessing they will report a bad quarter on June 16. Stock price took quite a hit after rising last week.
2. China's Yanzhou raises 2008 coal export price. Likely buffering for their winter ahead. Could bode well for ANR, FDG.
3. S&P cuts ratings on MER, LEH and MS.

Indices

DJIA
-cci shows potential VT coming but yet to be triggered. LSMA quite near. Maybe 2 to 3 days. Anyway, don't predict, react !
-Fish also have turning signs, IFT is in oversold mode.
-Ell also tapering for almost a week already.

Nasdaq
-cci hovering between 100s, now -ve. 2550 is proving a strong short term resistance. keltner also giving strong support at moment.
-need to monitor.

Rut
-almost all indicators were quite bullish since Apr !
-cci did not go below zero most of time, IFT did not really trigger sell signals, etc.
-woode club members probably having misery or fun - have not catch up with them lately.

cci

BUY
M:
W: AEM,CF,MOS,POT
D: POT

SELL
M:
W: FCX, MA
D: AXP,BIDU,MER

China's Forex Reserve - US$1.76 Trillion

I remember during a company retreat 4 years ago - China's Forex reserve just surpassed Japan at US$1 Trillion. Now, it's US$1.76 Trillion !!!

Well, the next time you visit China, don't look down on the farmers. They definitely have a reason to smile if their government have deep pockets.

When I was stationed in China, I remember the government provided free medical and schooling to the farmer's family. Well, let's see if the China government will provide a even better stimulus than the US.

You can feed on the report here.

Are you dreaming big enough ?

Y'day msg: If your dreams don't scare you, you are not dreaming big enough.

Plan for coming week

1. Clock 20km in my jog.
2. Monitor the CCs.
3. Start thinking about my book which I intend to be available on 24 Oct 2009. An autobiography? An options trading manual ? How to achieve Financial Freedom? Fear vs Greed? Wow, seems a lot of areas can cover but I must really focus. I dedicate this to God, my wife and girl. May they continue to serve Him forever and find life's meaning and joy through Him, the Creator of Heaven and Earth.